The first publicly-released dataset of US aquatic livestock shipping outcomes - DOA rates by carrier, season, and species category, transit-time impact, and the husbandry-side variables that move survival from 95% to 99%+.
This analysis aggregates shipment-outcome data from 18,427 aquatic livestock shipments processed through Fast Aquatics' carrier-tracked Buyer Protection system between January 1 and December 31, 2025. Each shipment record includes: species category (marine fish, marine invertebrate, coral, freshwater fish, freshwater invertebrate, aquatic plant), carrier (FedEx Priority Overnight, FedEx First Overnight, UPS Next Day Air), origin and destination ZIP, transit duration, ambient temperature at origin and destination at delivery time, and arrival outcome.
"DOA" is defined consistently across the dataset as a specimen reported dead within the 4-hour buyer-protection window starting at carrier-reported delivery, supported by photo evidence per the Fast Aquatics claim protocol. Specimens that arrived in poor condition but recovered are counted as live arrivals (this is the industry convention). Specimens that died after the 4-hour window are not counted as DOA.
The dataset is provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license and is freely available for citation by other researchers, hobby publications, and aquarium-keeping educators. Anonymized at the shipment level - no buyer or vendor PII is included.
Across all 18,427 shipments and all species categories, the aggregate DOA rate is 3.2%. This is consistent with the long-standing industry rule of thumb (the LFS-grapevine number is "3-5%") but provides the first publicly-cited data point at scale.
| Species category | Shipments | DOA rate | Avg transit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine fish | 4,182 | 3.4% | 22.1 hrs |
| Marine invertebrate | 3,867 | 2.1% | 22.6 hrs |
| Coral | 2,914 | 1.8% | 23.0 hrs |
| Freshwater fish | 5,201 | 3.7% | 21.4 hrs |
| Freshwater invertebrate | 1,098 | 2.9% | 21.8 hrs |
| Aquatic plant | 1,165 | 0.4% | 22.2 hrs |
| All categories | 18,427 | 3.2% | 22.0 hrs |
Marine invertebrates (CUC, ornamental shrimp, clams) survive transit better than marine fish despite being more "delicate" - the explanation is that invertebrates have lower oxygen demand per unit body mass and tolerate temperature shifts within a wider band. Plants survive shipping at >99.5% because they don't have an oxygen demand at all in the typical 18-26 hour transit window.
On marine livestock specifically, FedEx Priority Overnight delivers a 2.4% DOA rate vs UPS Next Day Air at 4.1%. This is a 41% relative improvement and the most actionable finding in the dataset for vendors choosing a carrier.
| Carrier | Marine fish DOA | Coral DOA | FW fish DOA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FedEx Priority Overnight | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% |
| FedEx First Overnight | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.4% |
| UPS Next Day Air Early | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% |
| UPS Next Day Air | 4.1% | 2.4% | 4.6% |
Two factors drive the FedEx advantage on marine livestock: (1) FedEx World Hub in Memphis routes most overnight packages through a single sort with consistent ambient temperature, while UPS Worldport in Louisville exposes packages to longer warehouse stays in some regional routings, and (2) FedEx Priority drivers have higher delivery time consistency - average +/- 18 minutes vs +/- 41 minutes for UPS Next Day per our sampled deliveries.
The First Overnight tier is statistically significantly better than Priority for both carriers (1.8% vs 2.4% on marine fish; 0.9% vs 1.5% on coral) - the cost premium ($35-60 per shipment) is justified for high-value coral or sensitive marine fish.
DOA rate varies dramatically by season. June-August shipments to Sun Belt destinations spike to 7.4% DOA on marine fish, against the 3.4% annual mean - a 2.3x multiplier. Winter cold snaps (December-February in continental destinations) drive a 1.7x multiplier on coral and marine invertebrates.
| Season | Marine fish DOA | Coral DOA | FW fish DOA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring (Mar-May) | 2.8% | 1.4% | 3.2% |
| Summer (Jun-Aug) | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% |
| Fall (Sep-Nov) | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.7% |
| Winter (Dec-Feb) | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% |
The summer pattern is dominated by extreme heat events - days where the destination ZIP exceeds 90°F at delivery time produce 4-7x the DOA rate of normal-temperature days. The Fast Aquatics climate-aware hold logic, which automatically delays a shipment when forecasted destination temperature exceeds safe thresholds, cuts the realized DOA to 0.9% across all categories - matching the no-hold rate during ideal seasons.
Even with optimal vendor packing and carrier selection, the buyer-side variables in the first 4 hours after delivery move overall livestock survival from "alive at 4 hours" to "thriving at 30 days." From a follow-up survey of 1,200+ Fast Aquatics buyers:
The carrier choice + vendor packing matter, but the buyer-side acclimation protocol is where the largest survival gains compound. Browse the Fast Aquatics care library for the full acclimation playbook.
The shipment-level anonymized dataset is available under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0). Researchers, aquarium publications, and educators are encouraged to cite this report. Suggested citation:
For media or research inquiries: research@fastaquatics.com. The next planned analysis (slated for late 2026) will examine vendor-level DOA stratification and the impact of charter-breeder vs aggregator supply chains on long-term species survival.